A transdisciplinary, comparative analysis reveals key risks from Arctic permafrost thaw

Author(s)

Susanna Gartler, Johanna Scheer, Alexandra Meyer, Khaled Abass, Annett Bartsch, Natalia Doloisio, Jade Falardeau, Gustaf Hugelius, Anna Irrgang, Jón Haukur Ingimundarson, Leneisja Jungsberg, Hugues Lantuit, Joan Nymand Larsen, Rachele Lodi, Victoria Sophie Martin, Louise Mercer, David Nielsen, Paul Overduin, Olga Povoroznyuk, Arja Rautio, Peter Schweitzer, Niek Speetjens, Soňa Tomaškovičová, Ulla Timlin, Jean-Paul Vanderlinden, Jorien Vonk, Levi Westerveld, Thomas Ingeman-Nielsen

Abstract

Permafrost thaw poses diverse risks to Arctic environments and livelihoods. Understanding the effects of permafrost thaw is vital for informed policymaking and adaptation efforts. Here, we present the consolidated findings of a risk analysis spanning four study regions: Longyearbyen (Svalbard, Norway), the Avannaata municipality (Greenland), the Beaufort Sea region and the Mackenzie River Delta (Canada) and the Bulunskiy District of the Sakha Republic (Russia). Local stakeholders’ and scientists’ perceptions shaped our understanding of the risks as dynamic, socionatural phenomena involving physical processes, key hazards, and societal consequences. Through an inter- and transdisciplinary risk analysis based on multidirectional knowledge exchanges and thematic network analysis, we identified five key hazards of permafrost thaw. These include infrastructure failure, disruption of mobility and supplies, decreased water quality, challenges for food security, and exposure to diseases and contaminants. The study’s novelty resides in the comparative approach spanning different disciplines, environmental and societal contexts, and the transdisciplinary synthesis considering various risk perceptions.

Organisation(s)

Department of Social and Cultural Anthropology, Department of Microbiology and Ecosystem Science

External organisation(s)

Austrian Polar Research Institute (APRI), Umeå University, Technical University of Denmark (DTU), University of Sharjah, University of Oulu, b.geos GmbH, Université Paris Saclay, University of Montreal, Stockholm University, Alfred-Wegener-Institut (AWI) Potsdam, Stefansson Arctic Institute, Nordregio – Nordic Centre for Spatial Development, Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung, Universität Potsdam, Universita Ca' Foscari, Venezia, National Research Council (CNR), Northumbria University, Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Universität Hamburg, University of Amsterdam (UvA), University of Victoria, Université de Versailles-Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines, University of Bergen (UiB), GRID-Arendal

Journal

Communications Earth & Environment

Volume

6

No. of pages

20

ISSN

2662-4435

DOI

https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01883-w

Publication date

01-2025

Peer reviewed

Yes

Austrian Fields of Science 2012

106026 Ecosystem research, 106022 Microbiology

Keywords

Sustainable Development Goals

SDG 2 - Zero Hunger

Portal url

https://ucrisportal.univie.ac.at/en/publications/083a18fb-d9d0-4e75-abc4-9c39d35e79be