Multi-scale scenario building for community development

Author(s)

Nikita Strelkovskii, Philipp Budka, Dmitry Erokhin, Nadejda Komendantova, Alexandra Meyer, Olga Povoroznyuk, Elena Rovenskaya, Alexis Sancho Reinoso, Katrin Schmid, Peter Schweitzer

Abstract

The severe environment and remoteness of the Circumpolar North elevate transport infrastructure to a crucial factor in community development bridging global trends to local realities. Understanding plausible infrastructure futures is therefore key to robust development planning. To ensure realism and local relevance, scenario building requires a transdisciplinary approach. However, standard participatory methods are often hampered by practical constraints, like high resource demands and community research fatigue, necessitating more adaptive frameworks. This paper applies a methodology of consecutive translation across scales utilizing researcher-constructed, ethnographically informed scenarios as shared discussion prompts (boundary objects) for community deliberation. We developed four coherent scenario narratives for each of the circumpolar communities of Churchill, Canada and Kirkenes, Norway, spanning futures from resource extraction to environmental conservation, to decline. In community workshops, we engaged local stakeholders with these scenarios visualized through illustrations by local artists. Both communities shared a sense of being at a crossroads, voicing concerns about climate change impacts, economic sustainability, and infrastructure adaptation needs. Workshop participants in both communities assessed resource- and transportation-oriented futures as more possible than conservation and decline scenarios. Some community priorities diverged: discussions in Churchill centered on port diversification and tourism, while deliberations in Kirkenes focused on balancing industrial development with environmental preservation and transportation hub feasibility. We conclude that integrating ethnographic inquiry and artistic illustration into a pre-constructed multi-scale scenario framework prompts a meaningful community dialogue and offers a practical approach for contexts where fully participatory scenario development faces resource or feasibility constraints.

Organisation(s)

Department of Social and Cultural Anthropology

External organisation(s)

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Niederösterreichische Landesregierung

Journal

Futures

Volume

180

ISSN

0016-3287

DOI

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.futures.2026.103834

Publication date

06-2026

Peer reviewed

Yes

Austrian Fields of Science 2012

509019 Futurology, 504034 Social anthropology, 504008 Ethnography, 507009 Regional planning

Keywords

ASJC Scopus subject areas

Business and International Management, Development, Sociology and Political Science

Portal url

https://ucrisportal.univie.ac.at/en/publications/7b99200f-ba7c-49b9-b987-1f34a429cf44